A CY Young is a pristine award given out to the best pitcher in their respective leagues. It is a reflection of the hard work they’ve shown over the year and prime dedication to be the best in different measurements of the game. It comes down to the voters association that decide the fate of the next CY Young. Sometimes the voters don’t always pick the smartest guy to bring home the gold but it’s always someone who shows strengths in the basic stats; ERA, WHiP, Strikeouts and ERA+, they never really factor the advanced stats like BB/9 and xwOBA as well as expected ERA. Expected ERA is not necessarily predictive of their ERA but it gives you insight of how they suppress runs. But these aren’t the fun stats to look at and make voting harder to pick their favorites for the award.

Pitchers should examine the best of these peripherals to be granted the award, yet not always the case and is clearly not the case with newly minted LHP Blake Snell that recently became the 9th pitcher to win then CY Young in both leagues. Blake Snell is coming off a season that saw him post a 14-9 record, 234 strikeouts a Whip of 1.188 and a delightful ERA of 2.25 thus solidified him another year with the plaque. From these basic stats in a walk year for Snell you must believe he will be getting a fat paycheck from a new team for over 30 million a year. Wrong! Blake Snell receiving his 2nd career CY Young just shows how lopsided his career, let’s dive into that.

Yes, Snell has two seasons of a 2.25 ERA or below the first came with a 1.89 ERA in 2018 both where he claimed the CY Young. However he is not durable and hasn’t pitched above 130 innings except his CY Young seasons. If you take away his two spectacular seasons he sits at a career 3.78 ERA, when you add the two seasons he is a 3.30. The reason Snell gets overlooked so often is because of his BB/9 that sits at an atrocious 5.0BB/9. In the season Snell walked 99 batters the most in baseball that year. His 99 walks was 68 more than runner-up Logan Webb who only gave up 31 in 20 more innings than Snell had. This argument isn’t to discuss a pit for pat on his peripherals he just isn’t a good pitcher as people are discussing. He isn’t an ace or a second man up so he does not deserve to be paid like one.

When you really dive into the logistics everything tells you Snell is just. a pitcher who outperformed his expectations. He has a career 3.30 ERA, this season he was expected to have an ERA close to 4.00. If you factor in ERA+, it shows Snell maintains an average of 130+ ERA per year but what is wild to see is if you take away the two good seasons he is only 5% better than league average (100Era+) Snell had a tremendous turnaround in his season which makes winning all the more impressive. From the start of the season on March 30th to his start against the Red Sox on May 18th Snell was struggling mightily. With a 1-6 record, 5.40 era it seemed Snell’s last season in San Diego would be a joke. He went on a hot stretch from the end of May to the end of September where he averaged an ERA around 2.50 the rest of the way through. He ended the torrid hot stretch with a 13-3 record giving him a guaranteed lock at the CY Young. I still believe Snell is a valuable pitcher and has proven to be good I just do not believe he is consistent. No one is interested in signing him, he’ll cost too much and provides no consistent longevity.

At the end of then day Blake Snell will be going to a new team willing to cough up a $150-200 contract for him. However I do not believe he will be worth this contract and will be a similar overpay in contract to what the Dodgers gave out to Tyler Glasnow for $110/4. Pitchers like Robbie Ray who won the award with the Blue Jays in 2021 hasn’t performed well with the Mariners since signing a 5 year deal back in 2021. Justin Verlander known for his two CY Young awards and WS wins with the Astros signed a 3 year deal late in his long career with the Mets the year after he took home the CY Young with an 18-4 record and comeback player of the year. He only lasted half a year before being traded. The point is just because a pitcher won the CY Young does not guarantee they’re very reliable pitchers. Most never win one in their respective careers but still put up damm good numbers. Gerrit Cole just recently won his first award after his 2023 campaign. Though he never won beforehand he stayed consistent and healthy which was the driving factor for the Yankees to give him a $324 contract for 9 years. Snell is still going to be a rich man after this offseason but all his award did was just pamper up his resume and falsely proclaim him as some ace level pitcher when in reality he’s a pitcher with a bad background of inconsistent pitching.